If anyone was skeptical about Faure Gnassingbe’s intent to leave or stay in power in Togo, the answer came on Tuesday, January 7 when he once again “humbly accepted” the nomination of his ruling party. This widely anticipated announcement was made after a closed-door session of the Union of the Republic of Togo (UNIR) leadership, in lieu of the traditional party nominating convention. This announcement also came a mere twenty-four hours before the official deadline for candidate submissions.
Faure had carefully built a false suspense around his fourth term. However, to anyone paying attention, it was obvious that he and UNIR leadership were busy laying the foundation to extend his family’s fifty-four years in power and the likelihood of ten more years of Faure at the helm. What is more, this was the decisive act in a drama that will likely culminate in another controversial, yet unstoppable electoral victory, this February.
The opening scene for this upcoming drama was laid down with the legislative elections of December 2018, when Faure sidelined the opposition by only allowing two days of voter registration. The ensuing boycott of these elections ensured that the UNIR would win a sizeable majority, allowing it to pass constitutional reforms to Faure’s advantage.
A key “reform” that was ultimately passed by the UNIR-dominated legislature included the provision of a two five-year consecutive limit on the president going forward – not to be enforced retroactively – thus opening the door for additional terms for Faure, already in power since 2005. Therefore, the next step for Faure Gnassingbe, who evidently controls the so-called independent Electoral Commission, the Constitutional Court and enjoys the full loyalty of the military, is to complete the formality of an election to legitimize his “first” term under the “new” constitution.
In 2015, when Faure used a similar playbook to secure a third term in office, there was some outcry from the international community and the United States, because, at the time, he was rowing against the trend of a maximum of a two term limit norm in nearly all West African countries. This peculiarity emboldened Togo’s opposition and inspired the massive protests of 2017 when citizens bravely demanded term limits with retroactive effect. However, with other countries in the region this year, such as Cote D’Ivoire and Guinea, actively questioning the relevance of term limits, Faure Gnassingbe will be facing a more friendly climate and certainly less pressure from his regional peers.
In the next elections, the ruling UNIR will no doubt face a weakened opposition, one that is fractured and currently ensnared in an internal crisis over how to stop the fraudulent Faure steam train. Some opposition voices, like Tikpi Atchadam, the exiled mastermind of the 2017 protests, has effectively said ‘no thanks,’ making the judgement that electoral conditions will be far from free or fair. From the group of nine opposition contenders who might have an outside shot is Jean Pierre Fabre of the National Alliance for Change (ANC). Fabre is the former leader of Togo’s parliamentary opposition who has tried and failed on two previous occasions to secure a democratic transfer of power. The late entry in the race of Agbeyome Kodjo, a former prime minister under the military dictatorship of Faure’s father, is further dividing an already worn out opposition. Agbeyome is also a highly controversial figure whose name is associated with many of the crimes committed by the long-ruling Gnassingbe family.
In the end, Faure – who has already started campaigning – is rightly confident of his impending, altogether hollow victory. His supporters will no doubt claim a knock-out in the first round of voting. And Togo will continue its slow-motion descent into full-on dictatorship with likely little concern from the region or outside world. And therein lies the real shame of the situation.
Wolali K. Ahlijah is the operations Director for the Togolese Civil League and cofounder of the Faure Must Go campaign. Wolali works closely with Togolese civil society to create pathways for the rule of law, democracy and freedom. You can follow him on Twitter here: @Wolali
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa or the Vanguard Africa Foundation.