“Assistant Secretary Garcia’s presence in Lusaka is a welcome signal that Washington sees real strategic value in Zambia, from the Lobito Corridor to its role as a stable anchor in an increasingly difficult region,” Jeffrey Smith, founder of pro-democracy advocacy group Vanguard Africa, tells The Africa Report. “But attendance should not be mistaken for a blank check.”

Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa and a campaigner for Bazoum’s release, says the ousted president is effectively being held as a “hostage” by Niger’s military rulers.

He adds that the former president has been “stripped of his dignity” while living under the “ever-looming threat of prosecution”, including a possible death sentence if convicted by a “corrupt military court”.

For Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa, the implications stretch far beyond Kimambi or Tanzania. “If Kimambi wins, it’s a very big deal. Not just for Tanzania … For many years, autocrats have leaned on social media platforms to do the censorship they often can’t get away with doing openly, and platforms have hidden behind ‘local compliance’ to avoid owning it.”

Smith says governments are increasingly using regulation as cover for political retaliation. “Too often, we see political retaliation dressed up as regulation. Platforms like Meta know this difference,” he says. “They choose not to act because standing up to governments is bad for their business model. That’s the real story here.”

“Nigeria’s security crisis is not only a battlefield problem; it is a legitimacy problem,” Smith tells The Africa Report. “Vanguard Africa’s advocacy will highlight that link: Durable security depends on public trust, the rule of law, and credible, nonpartisan institutions. If anti-corruption tools are perceived as selective or politically motivated, they deepen grievances, erode confidence in the state, and weaken the government’s ability to confront insecurity.”

Human rights advocates, however, warn that the US is trading short-term gain for long-term pain if it doesn’t insist on a return to democracy in the Sahel. “Cosying up to Sahel juntas (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) is a blunder,” Jeffrey Smith of Vanguard Africa, which lobbies for the release of deposed Nigerien former president Mohamed Bazoum, wrote on X in response to the Trump team’s overtures. “Since the coups, violence has doubled and civilian deaths tripled. Three million have fled through migration, not to mention documented massacres. Emphasis must be on civilian rule.”

Jeffrey Smith, founder of pro-democracy organization Vanguard Africa, said “This is damage control 101. The military tie was too radioactive post-sanctions … Kagame loves using basketball as part of ‘Visit Rwanda’ to project a shiny, modern facade. When that facade cracks under U.S. sanctions for Congo crimes, it stings—particularly for a leader who craves international validation. He can swap teams all he wants; the world now sees the regime’s military fingerprints on everything, including sports.”

Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa, joins us to examine the aftermath of Uganda’s elections and the future of politics in Uganda, and more broadly across East Africa and other parts of the continent where democracy is severely undermined.

“All the murkiness – what's true, what isn't – is by design”, says Jeffrey Smith, the founding director of Vanguard Africa. “The internet shutdown, for example, is intended to create uncertainty, cause confusion and anxiety. The human abuses that do happen, that are happening can now be dismissed by the regime.”

“The Museveni regime saw what happened, or rather, what didn’t happen in Tanzania. There were zero consequences for electoral theft, violence and mass killings. Museveni and the regime around him, propping him up certainly took note of this. They know they have free rein to commit abuses with impunity.”

African affairs expert Jeffrey Smith, of the pro-democracy organization, Vanguard Africa, told RFI this outcome was expected. "I suspect we'll see an overwhelming reported victory for Museveni and a concerted government crackdown thereafter.”

Concerns were now focused on what comes next for the country, he added – pointing to Uganda’s young population and warning of deeper instability. "Uganda's crisis is much bigger than Uganda, and that's why it's a crisis that demands urgent, authoritative action from both local and global actors," he said.