The West African nation of Guinea is again generating headlines for all of the wrong reasons. For those who do not follow the region closely, the concerning developments may seem like a bit of a shock given the democratic advancements transpiring elsewhere in West Africa; however, the warning signs in Guinea were long apparent and troubling for anyone paying attention.
The latest reports from the ground indicate that at least four people were killed this week, and dozens more injured, after police fired tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse thousands of protesters who are rightly outraged at President Alpha Condé’s bid to extend his time in office. Unrest in the country has been building towards a tipping point for several months now, with demonstrations growing increasingly restive in light of a potential revision to the country’s constitution that would allow President Condé to run in next year’s election.
First elected in 2010 and then re-elected in 2015 – in polls widely perceived to have been fraudulent – Condé appears determined to rewrite the rulebook so that he can run for a constitutionally prohibited third presidential term in October 2020. Given the markedly poor state of Guinea’s electoral roll, the partisan and largely feckless electoral commission, and the continued use of repression against opposition and civic actors, it is nearly certain that the planned national referendum will be fixed in Condé’s favor. This current predicament can be traced back to September 2018 when Kéléfa Sall, the head of Guinea’s Constitutional Court, and a vocal critic of President Condé, was abruptly sacked. At the time, opposition leaders condemned the move as an attack on judicial independence and also raised initial alarms that the move was likely a precursor for Condé and his political allies to advance the idea of a third term.
Despite the violence already perpetrated against them with alarming impunity, Guinean citizens seem poised to counter this assault on the country’s developing democracy. And the data backs up this assessment. A recent Afrobarometer survey, for example, found that 82 percent of Guineans endorse the idea of a two-term limit. Moreover, more than 70 percent disapprove of single party rule, one-man rule, and military rule, saying that democracy is most preferable.
Overall, a good test for the health of a democracy, in Africa and elsewhere, is whether leaders leave office when the law says their time is up. So far, term limits in Africa have been respected more times than they have been disregarded. Still, a growing number of leaders have removed such restrictions or given themselves longer terms through constitutional coups, which rewrite the rule books to essentially make the incumbent president for life. According to research from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, since 2000 at least 30 African presidents have tried to extend their rule, and 18 of them have thus far succeeded. Importantly, African countries lacking term limits tend to be more unstable; indeed, a third of these 18 countries are currently facing armed conflict while just two of the 21 countries with term limits are classified to be in conflict.
For Guinea specifically, Condé’s ongoing efforts to remain in office risk derailing Guinea’s nascent democracy while sending the country on an unpredictable path of instability. This outcome would signify a heartrending downfall for President Condé, a man who prior to winning the presidency in 2010 was known as a staunch pro-democracy campaigner in Guinea – he was actually forced into exile in France due to his brave activism, and during his time away even taught courses on human rights at Sorbonne University.
In this period of uncertainty for Guinea, it is time for West African leaders to stand up, to be heard, and to vigilantly defend democracy on their borders. Recall the impressive spirit with which regional counterparts fought with to ensure that democracy took root in The Gambia in early 2017. In the case of Guinea today, these leaders must draw from the same well to once again uphold crucial democratic principles – it is, after all, in their own best interests to do so. Let this be another important lesson that authoritarian ambitions have no place in a region that, despite the negative global headwinds, has remained tethered to democratic ideals, however precarious. The world, the African continent and Guinean citizens in particular could surely benefit from the solidarity and the much-needed inspiration.
Jeffrey Smith is the Founding Director of Vanguard Africa and the Vanguard Africa Foundation