Citizen Participation Has Arrived
After decades of frustration with the electoral process, Cameroonians had increasingly disengaged from politics. However, years of relentless awareness-building and mobilization by civil society drew them back to the polling stations this year, determined to observe and defend their votes. Voters are clearly demanding a decisive break from the old ways.
At the same time, observers became adept at documenting and reporting fraud; skills they wielded passionately in the 12 October election. Social media is overflowing with videos and photographs exposing election officials stuffing ballot boxes and falsifying signatures, as well as footage of Elections Cameroon (ELECAM) staff being physically confronted.
Whether this new political consciousness will endure – especially if the opposition loses, fairly or not – remains uncertain. Yet, it’s hard to imagine civil society stepping back as its efforts are beginning to bear fruit.
The Grand North Won’t Go Down Lightly
Historically, the three northern regions were dismissed as “herd ballot” voters, following the directives of local leaders. While the official results are still being contested, the protests and military confrontations since election day demonstrate that voters have defied old patterns.
In Garoua, opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma’s supporters have formed a human shield around his residence, armed with stones and organized in shifts, signaling their resolve to protect their candidate. This spirit of resistance has echoed in Kousseri, Douala, Bafoussam, Dschang, Bafang, and towns across Cameroon. Rioters torched the ruling CPDM party house and High Court in Dschang on 15 October, while Paul Biya’s billboards are being torn down nationwide. Taken together, this has heightened fears of escalating violence as the final vote results approach.
The Elite Can’t Hide from Accountability
This is a challenging moment for Cameroon’s political establishment. The push for opposition candidates to unite before the election has evolved into pressure for them to recognize Issa Tchiroma as the legitimate winner based on citizen-tallied results. Citizens are now demanding that leaders publicly denounce fraud where discrepancies between ballots cast and final results are glaring. Many have pledged to vote out complicit politicians in upcoming local and parliamentary elections. Potentially, this is the best opportunity to change the laws that have kept Biya in power.
Anglophones Are Drinking Tea
A five-week lockdown beginning on 8 September, orchestrated by separatists in the Anglophone region, effectively sabotaged the elections there, resulting in very low turnout. Citizen tallies still show Issa Tchiroma leading by a wide margin, but some ELECAM results have raised suspicions that the government is exploiting the boycott to manipulate outcomes.
One motorbike rider at a Bamenda polling station reported witnessing ELECAM staff attempting to stuff the ballot box for the ruling CPDM and joined the ensuing protest. While there have been demonstrations in support of Tchiroma in Limbe, most Anglophones are reluctant to add to their misery. After nine years of violent conflict, many feel it's now the Francophones’ responsibility to defend their votes. On social media, Ambazonian Twitter is filled with memes of people being disengaged and watching the turmoil from afar.
Rotational Opposition in a Two- or Three-Party System
Paul Biya’s 43-year rule is built atop Ahmadou Ahidjo’s 22-year one-party regime. Biya ousted Ahidjo as party leader in 1983 and rebranded the Cameroon National Union (CNU) as the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) in 1985. Since 1966, little has changed in Cameroon’s one-party system, but the opposition’s improved performance since 1992 provides hints about the future of Cameroonian politics.
John Fru Ndi, an Anglophone, gave Biya his stiffest challenge in 1992. Maurice Kamto from the West region was the main contender in 2018. Issa Tchiroma, from the North, has emerged as the leading challenger this year, completing the regional rotation against Biya, who hails from the South. Pre-election fears of regional vote-splitting proved unfounded, as voters rallied behind the candidate they believed best positioned to unseat Paul Biya.
Tchiroma’s rise as the principal challenger reveals a more dynamic and pluralistic Cameroonian electorate than previously assumed. A two- or three-party system, whether through party mergers or voter-driven coalitions, may now provide Cameroon a better path to genuine democracy.
Government Has Not Learned from Its War in Anglophone Cameroon
The Biya government’s response to the growing post-election protests mirrors its approach in the run-up to the Anglophone war: intimidation, arrests, and troop deployments to suppress dissent.
Relocating forces from the Anglophone region to other hotspots like Yaounde, Douala, and the Grand North is stretching government resources thin. As with the Anglophone Crisis, the grievances in the North run deeper than reported. Northerners feel their influence was stripped away when Ahidjo and his allies were exiled in 1983; his grave in Dakar has become a pilgrimage site, with politicians like Tchiroma promising to repatriate his remains in exchange for votes.
Above all, a Tchiroma victory would symbolize the presidency “coming home,” but any perceived attempt to deny the North could trigger unrest worse than the Anglophone conflict. Some protesters’ rhetoric on social media has grown increasingly incendiary, underscoring the volatility of the situation. Cameroon has weathered rebellions in the Francophone West and South before and is still grappling with the Anglophone crisis. Another war in its largest bloc could be disastrous.
A New Social Contract?
Issa Tchiroma has publicly apologized for his past mistakes made while in government, a rare and significant moment in Cameroonian politics. Whether he can fully earn the people’s trust remains to be seen. Even more remarkable is the electorate’s engagement, pressuring candidates to address previously taboo subjects like the form of the state. Cameroonians are no longer content to wish for better – they are demanding it from their leaders at the ballot box. Mere hope did little for them in 1992 and 2018, when Paul Biya emerged victorious, which is why his rule remains entrenched to this day.
Tony Vinyoh is a Cameroonian writer a frequent contributor to Africa Watch. He has numerous by-lines in a range of international and local media outlets, including in the BBC and Fodor’s Travel.
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa, the Vanguard Africa Foundation, or its staff.