A Historic Opportunity to Support Democracy in Somalia
For close to 30 years, Somalia has been synonymous with famine, conflict, terrorism, and political instability. This is the image that the country has struggled to shrug off as it aims to transform following the election of a popular president, Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo,’ in 2017. Somalia’s shaky attempts to build a viable state needs to be supported by all stakeholders, from near and afar. However, the international community has thus far failed to provide the stabilizing role that is required.
Engagement with regional federal member states
The international community, largely because of its separate engagements with Somalia’s regional federal member states, presents the most serious challenge to building a country that can transition from the fragmentation that has historically plagued the country. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has had a particularly destabilizing role with respect to Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991.
As one example, the signing of an agreement between UAE and the Somaliland administration, to manage the Berbera port, is problematic. Not only did this action aggravate tensions between Somalia and the UAE, but it is also raised the temperature between the federal government of Somalia and the administration of Somaliland, thereby impacting future negotiations between the two entities. An additional move that raised tensions came in 2018, when the UAE began accepting Somaliland passports, a move that is contrary to the unity of the federal Somali state as endorsed by the United Nations. The signing of these international agreements – namely, with foreign nations like the UAE – falls within federal jurisdiction and is meant to be reserved for the federal government as stipulated by the Somali constitution.
Of course, the UAE is not alone. For example, the Kenyan government has on numerous occasions courted the Somaliland administration. Most recently, Somaliland’s leader, Musa Bihi Abdi, made an official state visit to Nairobi, where he was received by President Uhuru Kenyatta. The pomp and circumstance of a visiting head of state deeply irked leaders back in Somalia. In so doing, these actions have undermined the authority of the central Somali state that has been trying to exert control over its territories – like Somaliland – while also emboldening other regional federal governments to pursue a separatist agenda.
In Jubaland, too, the American ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, traveled to the regional capital, Kismayo, to meet with administration leader Ahmed Madobe. Madobe’s election had previously been declared null and void by the Somali government, ostensibly due to the fact that his administration excluded some clans from voting in the recent election. This high-profile visit by an American leader, at a time when Madobe was perceived as not being duly elected, legitimized his leadership and further undermined the authority of the Somali government.
The role of neighboring countries
Somalia’s neighbors have also worked, unwittingly or not, to weaken the central government. Here again, Kenya stands out from the crowd, a country that is relied upon by the international community to defeat the Al-Shabaab terrorist network that has long operated within Somalia’s borders.
Kenya has a vested interest in the establishment of the Jubaland regional state, and in seeing the leadership of Ahmed Madobe succeed. This is because the government in Nairobi wants an effective buffer zone with Somalia. However, having a state effectively superimposed on Somalia – one that seems to serve merely as a security buffer – is a recipe for future conflict and instability. It also deserves note that Kenyan troops have also been cited by the UN Security Council – by the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, for example – as covertly trading in illegal charcoal with the same Al-Shabab terrorists they have been sent in to defeat.
The Path Forward
The recent clashes over delayed elections – between forces loyal to Somali opposition leaders and government troops in Mogadishu – remind us of the fragility of peace in Somalia. In light of the country failing to achieve a “one man one vote election,” the international community needs to take a different approach.
To support the efforts of state-building and democratic consolidation, there should be a moratorium placed on the establishment of bilateral agreements with regional federal governments, like Somaliland and Jubaland. Such agreements should be the purview of the central Somali government alone.
In addition, those countries that wield influence in federal member states today should use that earned leverage to pressure those leaders to work immediately towards the holding of free and fair elections. There should be concerted efforts to ensure that the federal government, as well as regional federal states, use the September 17, 2020 election model agreement as a benchmark for these engagements.
Most importantly, despite the current challenges, Somalia has many strengths. And there is indeed hope of a better and sustainable future.
The country now has a popular government that has managed to greatly reduce the political infighting that had doomed previous administrations. It has also dramatically reduced corruption in government agencies. The country is also experiencing a significant measure of international goodwill, culminating in a debt forgiveness program. The current government has also taken meaningful and truly historic steps toward ending the Somalia-Somaliland gridlock, evidenced recently by President Farmajo extending an apology to the people of Somaliland for the atrocities committed against them by previous administrations.
Today, there is a momentous opportunity to support Somalia’s path towards a consolidated and prosperous democracy. The international community should therefore act with requisite urgency.
Mohamed Abdi is a PhD. student in Politics at the University of Leeds. His research areas include peacebuilding, gender studies, democracy, and customary authorities in Africa.
Mumin Hussein holds an MSC in International Development from the University of Birmingham. His areas of focus are on the political economy of war, democracy, and developmental economics.
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa, the Vanguard Africa Foundation, or its staff.