Hope, Fear and Questions Abound in the Lead up to Burundi’s Vote
Last week on May 13, two weeks into a tense and competitive presidential campaign that will conclude on Wednesday, a popular cambist – a dealer in foreign exchange – was violently abducted in downtown Bujumbura, the commercial capital of Burundi. Witnesses immediately alerted human rights activists, who in turn, used their social media followings to call for his rescue. Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp lit up, quickly relaying pleas for help. But it wasn’t enough to save the man’s life.
By the next morning, the body of Jackson Simbananiye laid in a ditch, bloodied and strangled – the noose still tight around his neck – in a residential area nicknamed “Death Avenue.” The real-time kidnapping and murder of Simbananiye dismayed citizens across the country’s political divide. But the modus operandi soon began to sound all too familiar to us Burundians.
Simbananiye was, after all, the fourth cambist to be killed under similar circumstances since last year, and one of the thousands of Burundians disappeared or killed since a violent political crisis began in 2015, unleashed by President Pierre Nkurunziza’s quest for a controversial third term in office.
More to the point: the killing of Jackson Simbananiye is a reminder of what hangs in the balance on Wednesday as Burundians once again go to the polls.
Coincidentally, the day Simbananiye was killed, BBC Gahuza – a popular radio program that the government banned in 2018 – posted results of what could be considered an online focus group on this month’s election. The most popular responses included issues of justice, social cohesion and reconciliation. The need to treat all Burundians equally under the law, regardless of their political affiliation or ethnic background featured especially high on the list. Ordinary kitchen table issues, such as improving the economy and social welfare, came in second. And thereafter, better relations with neighboring countries and the international community registered not too far behind.
Who will voters therefore elect to fulfil these aspirations?
And will the announced poll results actually reflect the people’s will?
Chief concern among citizens and presidential candidates – save for the ruling party – has been the impartiality, or lack thereof, of the Independent National Election Commission (CENI). Many unresolved concerns remain just a day before the election. CENI has, for example, declined to publicize a final voters list, a prerequisite for any semblance of a free and fair vote; a significant number of polling units will be staffed exclusively by ruling party members, and in some cases, candidates themselves; and too many opposition party supporters failed to receive their voter ID cards because local partisan officials held onto them. These were among the myriad concerns that candidates expressed in speeches and in writing during the final week of the campaign. It is clear that they have very little trust, if any, in the CENI. Perhaps rightly so.
The U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Burundi, established in 2016, has additionally cautioned that “the announcement of the official election results could become triggering factors of a new and deeper cycle of political violence.” Notwithstanding the concerns over CENI’s lack of professionalism, fears are further justified given the mass arrests of opposition supporters and the alarmingly heightened hate speech that characterized the final weeks of the campaign.
CENI commissioners, many of whom are ruling party loyalists, have a momentous task at hand, one that will determine whether the hopes of Burundian voters stay alive or fizzle entirely. It may be too much to ask, but full transparency in the voting and collation processes are the only true ways to secure a more stable future for the country and its deserving citizens, and to allay the mounting concerns of the international community, including Burundi’s key partners.
There does remain hope in the fact that this election, regardless of its outcome, will end the bloody and increasingly violent regime of Pierre Nkurunziza. Still, we are left to wonder: what if the masterminds behind the murder of Jackson Simbananiye – and the countless others like him in Burundi – remain powerful enough to also kidnap the will of the people and CENI's ultimate verdict?
Thierry Uwamahoro is a U.S.-based Burundian activist and political analyst with experience managing elections programs for both the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute.
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa, the Vanguard Africa Foundation or its staff.