Since he seized power in May 1999 – by stealing an electoral victory from independence veteran Moussa Ahmed Idriss – Djibouti’s dictator Ismael Omar Guelleh has lived a relatively easy life. Fully supported by the late Ethiopian strongman Meles Zenawi, and relying on the largesse of Western powers, including the United States, he has ruthlessly suppressed any critical voices inside the country. Buoyed by this international backing, Guelleh altered the constitution in April 2010, ending the previous two-term limit for presidents and thereby opened the possibility of staying in power for life.
Guelleh’s reckless wielding of and thirst for power is by now infamous.
For example, the regime has invited in China, which intentionally fed Guelleh’s government with a huge debt of at least 1.2 billion USD for overcharged and ill-managed infrastructure projects, including railways and ports. In return for these non-concessional loans, China gained a massive military base and a strategic friendship that further bolstered Guelleh’s stranglehold on power. The West, to be sure, did not take kindly to this cozying up with China and neither were the citizens of Djibouti. However, due to credible threats and intimidation, citizens largely remained at home and off of the streets, allowing Guelleh to maintain his money-grabbing agenda and his regime’s repressive rule.
Slowly, though, the situation facing Guelleh has begun to change.
First and foremost, his powerful friend Meles Zenawi died in August 2012. In Ethiopia, the Tigray dominated regime was mired in trouble with massive protests led by the country’s courageous youth, which ultimately led to the collapse of the old guard. This democratic opening, albeit slim, opened the way for Dr. Abiy Ahmed, a young and charismatic leader who rose to power from the old regime’s ranks. This development was a major shock for Guelleh, who never imagined that a pro-reform leader like Abiy would ever ascend to power so soon in the Horn of Africa. This turn of events – combined with Ethiopia’s unexpected peace agreement with Eritrea and a change of regime in Sudan – caused Guelleh to become paranoid and fearful.
As a result, Guelleh has become increasingly suspicious of his opponents, as well as journalists and human rights defenders who are seen as threats to his power. This is why, once again, Guelleh has violently targeted the Movement for Democratic Renewal and Development (MRD), Djibouti’s main opposition party. On June 19, MRD’s Secretary General, Djama Houssein Robleh, was arrested on spurious charges. The next month, on August 6, Filsan Souleiman, a member of the MRD youth organization, was also detained. Last month, on October 23, Guelleh personally ordered the arrests of journalist Osman Yonis Bogoreh – who was later re-arrested on October 30 – and activist Said Abdillahi Yassin, both of whom are MRD members. Both men were severely beaten and detained in deplorable conditions. Kako Houmed Kako, a young pro-democracy campaigner close to another opposition party, the ARD, has also been arrested. The list goes on and on.
During each of these arrests and subsequent interrogations and beatings, those detained were specifically asked to disclose what the MRD had planned for the future and whether any protests were being planned. This further confirms Guelleh's fear of a democratic uprising in Djibouti. In short, Guelleh is haunted by the prospect of being toppled by his own people – much like his longtime friend, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the former dictator in Sudan.
Isolated and unable to evolve towards democracy – and thus unable to abide by the democratic principles enshrined in Djibouti’s constitution – the regionally isolated dictator is feeling fragile and ever fearful. Hence his surge of violence and intimidation against Djibouti’s democrats.
At his own peril, Guelleh forgets that he cannot stop the people’s hunger for democratic change. No one can.
Dr. Daher Ahmed Farah is a published author, novelist and leading Djiboutian politician. He is the elected head of the Movement for Democratic Renewal and Development (MRD), Djibouti’s main pro-democracy opposition party. Dr. Farah currently lives in exile in Belgium due to persistent arrests and threats against his personal safety by Djiboutian authorities.
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanguard Africa or the Vanguard Africa Foundation.