Beyond the direct economic impact, suspension from the AGOA deals a reputational blow to blacklisted countries, says human rights activist Jeffrey Smith. Smith’s Washington-based Vanguard Africa advocacy firm represents several clients including Uganda’s opposition figure Bobi Wine, who is under house arrest.

“The suspensions of CAR, Niger, Gabon and Uganda give them entry into a veritable Who’s Who of autocratic, highly repressive regimes to have had their AGOA eligibility stripped due to ongoing human rights concerns,” Smith tells The Africa Report. “Obviously, this is not a category that any country nor leader would wish to be in given the high reputational damage and public relations disaster that this designation necessarily entails.”

Jeffrey Smith, founder of Vanguard Africa, an NGO that supports democracy in Africa, told me that the United States should refrain from endorsing “a completely flawed, shambolic election and refuse new debt relief, new lending, or direct support to the ZANU-PF government until substantive political and electoral reforms” are adopted. Any engagement with the regime, he says, “will inevitably be spun, both domestically and internationally, as an ‘endorsement’ of an oppressive government.”  

“This is an abomination,” Jeffrey Smith, who heads the pro-democracy group Vanguard Africa in Washington, said on Twitter. “[The CCA] has a history of feting dictators and whitewashing human rights abusers for American businesses. Now, they’ll collect hefty conference fees by selling access to Swaziland’s murderous king and Zimbabwe’s despot who is under US sanctions.”

As part of their contract, Vanguard Africa intends to mobilize human rights and democracy communities to advocate for “free, fair and credible elections in Senegal.” "We will definitely be planning a trip to Washington DC for Idrissa Seck to meet with US government officials," said Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa, noting that "this strategic move will be critical to the future of US-Government relations. Senegal”.

Former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck has hired two US human rights advocates, including Vanguard Africa, to help raise the alarm over several potentially ominous developments. These include the widespread expectation that President Macky Sall will run for a controversial third term in next year’s election.

“The February 2024 election in Senegal is an inflection point for the country, and arguably for the region writ large,” says Jeffrey Smith, executive director of Vanguard Africa, who advocates for several pro-democracy leaders, including Uganda’s Bobi Wine, Martin Fayulu in Democratic Republic of Congo, and Tanzania’s Tundu Lissu.

Jeffrey Smith, Executive Director of Vanguard Africa, talks to Voice of America about authoritarian solidarity, including Russia's growing ties with coupist regimes across Africa, from Guinea to Zimbabwe, and how the latter’s ruling party has long partnered with dictators, going back to North Korea in the early 1980’s.

The eSwatini monarchy remains shrouded in secrecy and lacks transparency with regard to its public affairs. It is plausible that such a pledging of public assets as collateral could have occurred behind the scenes or at least has been debated, Jeffrey Smith, founder of the pro-democracy pressure group Vanguard Africa, and one of the harshest critics of the eSwatini monarchy, tells The Africa Report.

“The Mswati regime is opaque and unaccountable to its core and is often legitimately accused of the irresponsible use of public funds. The Sikhuphe Airport project is a prime example, among many,” Smith says.

Jeffrey Smith from Vanguard Africa, a pro-democracy organisation, credited efforts by Rusesabagina’s family to keep his name in the news and helping to convince Kagame that, “despite his public bluster” the case would become a protracted embarrassment. By the time Blinken visited Kigali last year, Kagame was open to talking about how to resolve the issue. Smith said: "We know that the wrongful detention of Paul Rusesabagina was discussed and that progress was made. Now, it's all about public choreography and a delicate dance -- this is especially the case for Kagame, since this is shaping up to be a major step down for a man, and a regime, not well known for acknowledging its missteps and mistakes.”

“I would contend that the public pressure on the Kagame government, mainly from the Rusesabagina family, is what ultimately prompted Kigali to sit at the negotiating table,” says Jeffrey Smith, whose group repeatedly criticized Kagame's human rights record. “This pressure — in the form of public advocacy, naming and shaming, and strategic global outreach — helped to create the space that was needed for a dialogue between Washington and Kigali.”

For the most part, the election cycle has provided reassuring answers to questions about the state of Nigerian democracy. That has consequences beyond the country. “You look at the backdrop of democratic retrenchment all across the continent, and it is all the more important that Nigeria is advancing,” says Jeffrey Smith, founder of Vanguard Africa, a nonprofit dedicated to free and fair elections and democracy in sub-Saharan Africa.